Shift in FOMC thinking?
David Rosenberg spots a distinction in the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Communication post-January and post-March meetings. January 2013: If the outlook for the labor market does not improve...
View ArticleSecond time it is a choice
I circulated the blog post from ‘Short side of long’ blog to friends in India: My purpose was to alert them to the risks that lie ahead for Indian stocks and the currency because India runs a current...
View ArticleLong live QE as job creation slows
Non-farm payrolls in the US expanded by 88,000 in March. The market expected 190,000 new jobs to be created in the non-farm economy. The shortfall was ‘made up’ by the upward revision to last two...
View ArticleQE Potency
Following on from my previous post on the non-farm payroll report for March in the United States, I came across this interesting comment in a Goldman research note titled, ‘US Views: Déjà vu all over...
View ArticleGold
On Monday morning, I read Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar’s column on gold. He has declared the games over. It is fine and reasonable for reasonable individuals to disagree but I could not quite agree...
View ArticleA sincere prayer
On Tuesday, in Asian data, China’s Markit Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) declined. After another credit bubble induced phony revival in the second half of last year, China’s manufacturing is heading...
View ArticleFree marketer supports central planning
‘The Economist’ must be embarrassed about its support for Central Bank loose-money policies which amount to manipulation of prices of all types of financial assets. ‘Free Exchange’ (a pro-stimulus,...
View ArticleI print; you borrow; I lend; you spend
Western nations demanded that developing nations/emerging nations re-balance towards domestic demand. Four years after the so-called recovery began in 2009, emerging nations have done that remarkably...
View ArticleWe get the picture
‘JP Morgan caught in a swirl of regulatory woes’ [Link] ‘Clubby London Trading Scene Fostered Libor Rate-Fixing Scandal’ [Link] ‘How Wall Street defanged Dodd-Frank’ [Link] ‘There is no price the big...
View ArticleRupee has company
Indian newspapers are screaming with headlines about the fall of the Indian rupee. To put it more precisely, the Indian rupee price of U.S. dollar has gone up. The U.S. dollar has become dearer in...
View ArticleTalk of tapering is tapering
Yours truly had written in his last few columns in MINT on how the Federal Reserve is unlikely to walk its talk on tapering bond purchases and/or exiting its asset purchase programme. It is simply...
View ArticleA century of the Federal Reserve
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, had given a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research at Cambridge, Massachusetts yesterday on 100 years of the Federal Reserve. The...
View ArticlePoliteness and the durability of bad ideas
In MINT today, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha has a good Op.-Ed. on Rahul Gandhi vs. Narendra Modi. He says that, in reality, it is a battle between Jagadish Bhagwati and Amartya Sen. He frames the issues well....
View ArticleThe floor gives away
China had dropped the floor on the lending rate. I cannot make out how that constitutes reform. If the People’s Bank of China had removed the ceiling, then one could understand. Earlier, the rule was...
View ArticleThoughts on Chimerica
The first time I read Niall Ferguson’s characterisation of China and America as ‘Chimerica’, I cringed. He had since retracted it. They do not make a harmonious and synergistic pair. Nor are their...
View ArticleReadying for stagflation
My column in MINT today (behind a subscription firewall) continues its recent critical scrutiny of the US economy. I find it wanting and not cracked up to be as economists tout. That is no surprise, of...
View ArticleManipulated and/or mad
Russian President Putin accuses John Kerry of lying. Without UN authorisation, if the US attacks Syria, he said it would be an act of aggression. US is bent on attacking Syria. Factory Orders in the US...
View ArticleNow we know
Been struggling to come to terms with the sudden revival in China economic fortunes when, just as recently as in mid-July, the feeling was that they were maxed out. Then, everything seemed to turn on a...
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